A Texas Tech film expert and an amateur compare their 95th Academy Award predictions.
Mark Charney helped build the Clemson University film department from the ground up before he came to Texas Tech University, where he is director of the School of Theatre & Dance in the J.T. & Margaret Talkington College of Visual & Performing Arts. He is a playwright, film expert and served as the associate director of the National Critics Institute for the O'Neill Theatre Center for 19 years.
Lucy Greenberg is a writer in the Office of Marketing & Communications. Her film experience amounts to failing her first on-screen audition at three weeks old after spitting up on the director. All that said, she religiously watches Academy Award-nominees each year – a tradition developed by formerly living in Hollywood with a film-obsessed family.
Our team thought it would be interesting to pair up Charney and Greenberg to see how their predictions, and tastes, compare.
What was your favorite film of the 10 nominated for best picture?
Charney: I enjoyed the “Banshees of Inisherin.” I thought it was the most complex film of the year, a stunning allegory for how people fall into civil war. What's so significant about the film is how the bombs you hear from the Irish Civil War happening on the mainland are reflected by a sort of civil war unraveling between these two friends. The film deals with the repercussions of their actions beautifully and it causes you to care deeply about the friendship between these two men and the complexity of their relationship. So, I think the piece works on a literal, visceral level and a metaphoric one as well. Out of all the films up for best picture this year, I think this is the one with a message that will still ring true 50 years from now, and those are the stories I like teaching about.
Greenberg: I found “Tár” to be a unique story and I like films that feel outside the box. I also have a background in classical music so that certainly may have endeared me to this film. I'm not sure if I loved it the minute the movie ended, but it's the one I find myself going back to and thinking through the most, which to me, is a mark of a great film.
Which film do you think will actually win best picture?
Charney: I think “Everything Everywhere All at Once” will win. In my opinion there were better films than this one, but I think it will win because it's a classic comeback story and that's politically where we're at right now. It also has this quirky multiverse involved which gives a nod to the Marvel Universe which is so popular. I think the academy is playing to the fact very few people actually watch the Oscars. So lately, you've seen them pick more popular movies to be relevant and to attract an audience. Of course, they still make unconventional choices, but this trend is slowly changing.
Greenberg: I think Charney is likely right on this one, but to make things interesting I'll say, “The Banshees of Inisherin.” I do think if “Everything Everywhere All at Once” doesn't take home the Oscar, it's likely this film will. I am not sure if as a nation we're ready for that comeback story yet. I think we're still reeling in the division of the past few years and for that reason “Banshees” could easily take the win. I also say this because the only other film that has as many acting nominations as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is “Banshees.”
Do you think being relevant with audiences is something the academy should be worried about?
Charney: As a longtime critic, I understand film critics can be insanely unpopular. They call out what they feel is excellent, whether the populace agrees with them. However, critics must acknowledge they have to have a readership. That readership is becoming harder to find, with columns disappearing and everything being measured by number of clicks. So, I don't think you can ignore relevance or potential audience the way you could before the pandemic, but the academy should also weigh that with excellence.
Greenberg: I agree that some balance must be struck here. However, I will say that film is an art, and art in its essence is a way of expressing what is happening in and around us. The world is changing, as it always has been, and film will continue to adapt and change to reflect the human experience. I think if the academy tells that story, they'll be fine.
Which lead roles were best performed in your opinion?
Charney: I think Colin Ferrell's performance in “The Banshees of Inisherin” should win best actor in a leading role and Cate Blanchett should win for “Tár.” However, I am not convinced either will win those awards. I especially thought Ferrell was exceptional in his performance. The way he transitioned from someone who is bewildered and lonely to someone who is violent and vengeful was a deeply vulnerable performance.
Greenberg: Cate Blanchett was extremely compelling in “Tár.” I've seen Blanchett in many films, and I think this role is a true career accomplishment. For actor in a leading role, there were many I enjoyed. To be honest though, the performance I most enjoyed this year was Diego Calva in “Babylon.” I thought he gave a brilliant performance and was sorry not to see him in the running. In fact, I also would have loved to see Babylon as a nominee for best picture.
What is it about film you love so much?
Charney: What other medium than film so easily transports us to other worlds and environments (other than reading fiction of course)? Films let us step into others' shoes and live through another's visual perspective. I love storytelling, and in my opinion, film is the best way to transport someone.
Greenberg: Film is a nostalgic and emotional experience for me. Growing up, my family didn't always agree on everything, but we loved going to the movies. Film provided this avenue to connect. It laid out a story and we found ourselves in it. It helped me make a little more sense out of the relationships in my life. I may have not always understood why someone did the things they did, but if I saw a character do something similar, it led me to an empathetic and curious posture. I will always be grateful to film for that.
Charney's Predictions
- Best Picture: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
- Actor in a Leading Role: Brendan Frasier, “The Whale”
- Actress in a Leading Role: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
- Actor in a Supporting Role: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
- Actress in a Supporting Role: Angela Bassett, “Wakanda Forever”
- Directing: Steven Spielberg, “The Fablemans”
- Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell, “All Quiet on the Western Front”
- Writing (Original Screenplay): Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Production Design: Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole, “Avatar: The Way of Water”
- International Feature Film: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
- Cinematography: Mandy Walker, “Elvis”
- Animated Feature Film: “Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio”
Greenberg's Predictions
- Best Picture: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
- Actress in a Leading Role: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
- Actor in a Supporting Role: Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Actress in a Supporting Role: Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Directing: Steven Spielberg, “The Fablemans”
- Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell, “All Quiet on the Western Front”
- Writing (Original Screenplay): Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Production Design: Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole, “Avatar: The Way of Water”
- International Feature Film: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
- Cinematography: Florian Hoffmeister, “Tár”
- Animated Feature Film: “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
Charney's Personal Ranking
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fablemans
- All Quiet on The Western Front
- Tár
- Triangle of Sadness
- Women Talking
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Avatar: The Way of Water
Greenberg's Personal Ranking
- Tár
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fablemans
- Elvis
- Women Talking
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Triangle of Sadness
- Top Gun: Maverick
