Texas Tech Researcher on NRC Report: Emission Choices Made Now Can Lock in Climate
Changes for Centuries to Millennia
July 16, 2010
By: John Davis
NRC Scientists devised a list of advice and recommendations for possible outcomes
to consider when deciding about future emissions targets.
When it comes to our planet’s health, a group including a Texas Tech University climate
researcher has devised a list of advice and recommendations for possible outcomes
to consider when deciding about future emissions targets. Choices made now about carbon
dioxide emissions reductions will affect climate change and its impacts over the next
few decades and in coming centuries and millennia, said Katharine Hayhoe, who contributed
to a new report from the National Research Council. The report is titled Climate Stabilization
Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia. “Many of
us have had the experience of going to the doctor and receiving advice on how to improve
our health,” Hayhoe said. “Then, it’s up to us to decide how much we are willing to
change. In a similar way, this report presents the probabilities of certain impacts
at different levels of global temperature increase. But we, the scientists, can’t
make the decisions of how much risk is acceptable. That’s a political decision. Rather,
we’re trying to give policymakers the information they need to make these decisions.”
The researchers, led by Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
sought to quantify the relationships between atmospheric carbon dioxide and warming
levels, and between warming levels and future impacts. The report estimates changes
in precipitation, stream flow, wildfires, crop yields and sea level rise that can
be expected with different degrees of warming. Specific examples of impacts per 1.8
degrees Fahrenheit of global warming include rainfall decreases of 5 to 10 percent
in southwest North America, the Mediterranean, and southern Africa; stream flow decreases
of 5 to 10 percent in some river basins, including the Arkansas River and Rio Grande;
and yield decreases of 5 to 15 percent in certain crops, including U.S. and African
corn, and Indian wheat. In addition, warming of 1.8 F to 3.6 F could increase area
burned by wildfire in parts of western North America by two to four times per degree,
the report says. Warming of 5.4 F would put many millions more people at risk of coastal
flooding and lead to the loss of about 155,000 square miles of wetlands and land area.
Warming of 7.2 F would lead to far warmer summers; about nine out of 10 summers would
be warmer than the warmest ever experienced during the last decades of the 20th century
over nearly all land areas. This report also estimates the average temperature increases
that would be likely if carbon dioxide was stabilized in the atmosphere at various
target levels. Currently, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
about 390 parts per million – the highest level in at least 800,000 years. Depending
on emissions rates, that level could double or nearly triple by the end of the century,
greatly amplifying future human impacts on climate, the report says. Stabilizing atmospheric
carbon dioxide will require deep emissions cuts. Emissions reductions of at least
80 percent relative to whatever peak global emissions rate may be reached would be
required to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen
target level. However, the report does not recommend any particular stabilization
target. Instead, it notes that choosing among different targets is a policy choice
because of questions of values regarding how much risk or damage to people or to nature
might be considered too much. The report is sponsored by the Energy Foundation and
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The National Academy of Sciences, National
Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council make up
the National Academies. Copies of the report are available from the National Academies
Press. Call 1-800-624-6242 or e-mail news@nas.edu to obtain a copy from the Office
of News and Public Information.