Expert: North Korean Inherited Power Being Closely Watched Worldwide
December 19, 2011
By: Leslie Cranford
North Korea is probably the least understood and most isolated country in the world
and leaders across the globe are hoping for a “soft landing” to the transfer of power.
Pitch
North Korea is probably the least understood and most isolated country in the world
and leaders across the globe are hoping for a “soft landing” to the transfer of power.
Expert
Tibor Nagy (pronounced Nahzh), vice provost for international affairs and former ambassador
to both Ethiopia and Guinea, (806) 742-3667, tibor.nagy@ttu.edu. Cell phone also available.
Talking Points
- North Korea is the only hereditary Communist dictatorship in the world.
- It is probably the least understood and most isolated country in the world – even
its powerful neighbor, China, has no real insight into the Pyongyang regime’s dynamics.
- When Kim Jong Il replaced his own father, Kim Il Sung, the transition took three years
until the younger Kim was able to exert full control over the state.
- The new generation is more urbane and globally oriented (in a positive way) – many
were educated outside North Korea – including, Kim Jong un, who went to prep school
in Switzerland.
Quotes
- “The best possibility would be a smooth transition with the new leadership opening
up North Korea to the world and undertaking a modernizing transformation – much like
what the current Burmese regime has finally decided to do. Unfortunately, this rosy
scenario is highly unlikely. This time, no one can be certain of the outcome. Of the
various scenarios, most are negative.”
- “All regimes contain various factions jockeying for power and advantage. Kim Jong
Il’s sudden death will unleash these forces, and the designated heir – given his inexperience
and relative youth – may or may not be able to deal with these rivalries. The problem
is, the third generation is just starting to enter power. So there is a generational
struggle which may still have to play out in the regime, and the old guard may still
win.”
- “It is likely that the transition will be messy and could be long. North Korea could
be self-absorbed and introspective – as it was during the last transition – or, if
the internal fighting becomes especially nasty, it could look for a distraction by
doing something provocative with South Korea. This is where our lack of knowledge
and understanding of North Korea becomes dangerous, because the bottom line is that
North Korea is a nuclear state. So if it acts in an aggressive manner, we don’t have
the luxury to try and guess whether it’s posturing or genuinely threatening our ally
South Korea’s existence.”
- “The nightmare scenario for everyone, including China and Russia, would be the self
destruction of the North Korean state, which would send millions of refugees into
those two countries (as well as South Korea). Given all these uncertainties, it’s
definitely a time for very close consultation among the US, China, Russia, South Korea,
and Japan – it’s in everyone’s national interest for a ‘soft landing.’”