Expert: Congressional Super Committee Most Likely to Fail

This will trigger an across-the-board $1.2 trillion in cuts, but also could cause investors to flee their bonds and U.S. securities.

Pitch

As the clock ticks down on the statutory deadline, the congressional deficit reduction super committee most likely will fail to find compromise on the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. This will trigger an across-the-board $1.2 trillion in cuts, but also could cause investors to flee their bonds and U.S. securities, and another credit downgrade for the U.S.

Expert

Craig Goodman, assistant professor of political science, (806) 742-4047 office, (806) 790-8715 mobile, craig.goodman@ttu.edu.

Talking Points

  • The 12 appointees are committed to the process but are unable to broker the deals that need to happen.
  • Most committees such as this one have historically failed at their task.
  • On top of across-the-board spending cuts, the U.S. could face another credit downgrade.
  • The real deadline to get a proposal to the Congressional Budget Office for scoring would be by Friday or Monday.

Quotes

  • “When it comes to Republicans closing loopholes or generating new taxes, I think the former is more likely than the latter. But even if they close tax loopholes, it could antagonize the Republican base and cause some to question the committee members’ conservative nature, and that could lead to primary challenges.”
  • “Congress has often created these types of committees to try to solve problems, but they have generally not proven successful over time. There was a committee formed to try to deal with Social Security in the early 1980s. But it was negotiations between Tip O’Neill and Ronald Reagan that got a deal. Not Congress.”
  • The super committee probably won’t reach a deal. One reason is because there are too many substantive policy issues between the two sides. I think people are serious on the committee. I think it’s usually easier to get agreement between 12 than the House and Senate. But I’m not really sure if the people who were appointed can really negotiate a deal. Secondly, I don’t know if the kinds of compromise that are needed would pass the House and Senate in the end.”