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Texas Tech Cotton Economists Unveil New Global Cotton Outlook Analysis

Written by Norman Martin

A new cotton outlook analysis from Texas Tech University’s Cotton Economics Research Institute notes that global growth is projected to remain at 3 percent over the next five years, then slow by half a point during the following five.

“The global outlook for cotton remains less optimistic as a result of a weaker global economy in the years ahead as advanced countries continue to work on narrowing current output gaps and deficits,” said Darren Hudson, director of the institute.

Meanwhile U.S. growth is expected to slow; from 2.1 percent last year to 1.8 percent this year amid a large output gap emerging from a series of global financial calamities dating back to 2008.

In terms of cotton production, Hudson said productivity gains have slowed for the time being, and yield growth is projected to decelerate. In the absence of new yield-enhancing technologies and flat acreage, Hudson said cotton production growth is lower than the long-term average.

There is a positive aspect, though. Looking out a decade, Hudson said, world cotton production is projected to increase from 118 million bales to around 138 million bales. The leading producers of cotton are projected to be India (26 percent), China (23 percent), United States (12 percent), Pakistan (9 percent) and Brazil (6 percent).

Separately, annual forecasts released by the institute show that cotton mill use is projected to grow by about 32 million bales over the next 10 years. Mill use is projected to remain concentrated in Asia.

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CONTACT: Norman Martin, unit coordinator, College of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Texas Tech University, (806) 742-2802 or norman.martin@ttu.edu.

 

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Darren Hudson

Darren Hudson is the director of the Cotton Economics Research Institute and Larry Combest Endowed Chair in Agricultural Competitiveness.

View his profile in our online Experts Guide.